During the second week of November the COP30 climate conference will take place in Brazil. We sincerely hope that the population factor within climate change will get mentioned during the conference, but we fear it will be overlooked again. Although scientists have confirmed the impact of population growth on climate change – and the potential of population measures on mitigating it – as usual, it remains a sensitive topic for media and leaders. EurASP has taken this opportunity to contact the NGO’s that are invited to participate at the conference. Our members have sent the letter below to these organizations.
Dear Sir/Madam,
Previous world climate conferences have largely ignored an issue that is crucial to ecological balance: population growth. It is clear that even the slightest progress in efforts to reduce greenhouse gases is immediately offset by an increase in the world’s population. In its sixth report from 2022, Working Group III of the IPCC compared the increase in greenhouse gas emissions to GDP per capita and the corresponding population growth between 1990 and 2019. The calculations show that 34% of the increase in emissions is attributable to global population growth, with the remainder attributable to the increase in GDP per capita.(1) However, several authors have pointed out that the influence of demographic growth has been significantly underestimated here, as the effects of the areas summarized under the term LULUCF (Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry), which are particularly relevant for developing countries, have not been taken into account.(2) It therefore stands to reason that population growth is the greater factor in the increase in greenhouse gas emissions.
However, what is crucial for us is that in countries with high fertility rates, the pressure of a growing population runs counter to all efforts to adapt to the consequences of climate change and weakens their resilience. This applies in particular to food security.
At COP 15 in Copenhagen, industrialized countries promised to provide $100 billion annually for measures to adapt to the consequences of climate change in countries in the Global South. Fortunately, this promise has now been fulfilled, albeit too late. It will be crucial to use these financial resources efficiently. We therefore call for 5% of this climate adaptation fund to be dedicated to measures to support voluntary family planning programs. This comparatively small amount should be sufficient to enable highly efficient measures such as uncomplicated access to contraceptives and appropriate education for women. In addition, women’s access to education as a whole and the strengthening of social systems that guarantee secure old-age provision regardless of the number of children they have must be promoted. Different studies have confirmed that investing in family planning and education for girls is one of the most efficient measures to limit CO2-emissions.(3)(4)
The European Alliance for a Sustainable Population (eurASP) is articulating this demand with regard to COP 30 in Brazil and is seeking support for it from the organizations participating in the World Climate Conference. The measure the Alliance is proposing directly links the overarching goal of greenhouse gas reductions with the goal of strengthening resilience to the effects of climate change in the countries concerned. We are happy to discuss this demand with you and will do our utmost to help shape opinion within your own organization and among the general public.
Fons Jena
Chairman of the European Alliance for a Sustainable Population (eurASP)
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- Philip Cafaro, “Population in the IPCC’s new mitigation report” The Overpopulation Project. 12 April 2022. https://overpopulation-project.com/population-in-the-ipccs-new-mitigation-report/
- Michel Sourrouille, Surpopulation… Mythe ou réalité? (Paris, Edilivre, 2023), 115-119.
- Thomas Wire, Fewer Emitters, Lower Emissions, Less Cost: Reducing Future Carbon Emissions by Investing in Family Planning. A Cost/Benefit Analysis (London: London School of Economics, Operational Research, 2009).
- Brian C. O’Neill, Michael Dalton, Regina Fuchs, Leiwen Jiang, Shonali Pachauri, and Katarina Zigova, “Global Demographic Trends and Future Carbon Emissions,” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 107, no. 41 (2010): 17521–17526, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1004581107.