At this year’s General Assembly, eurASP welcomed a special guest: Bill Ryerson from Population Media Center.
With his permission, we share two slides from his presentation, showing the average number of children desired by married women and men in African countries.
In many cases, the “ideal number of children” is even higher than the actual average number of children. For example, in Niger, the number of children per woman was 7.2 in 2015 (today it’s 6.1), but in the survey, married women expressed an average desire for 9.5 children and married men for 13 children!
How should we interpret these shocking data? Share your thoughts!
4 responses to “Shocking data”
The first question that arises is how the survey was performed. I have difficulties to believe that so many women really want so many children when already there already is a food shortage, etc. If one should ask these women in the presence of their husband they will probably obey the wish of the clan and do not consider the life of their future children and certainly not their own health.
Men probably want a lot of children = sons to be able to defend their clan/ family, get more power, have more soldiers? Is this not a type of demographic aggression?
One should study more in detail those African countries that have a more moderate wish for the number of children, to understand what the reason is that just they do wish less children.
To evaluate more information is needed. Was it an enquiry and how was it performed who got the individual replies? What percentage did reply? Age distribution of the replies. What is the registered fertility and how did it fit to desires? What effect has it that only married were asked? How well does it fit to other data? It is 10 year old results how is it changing by time? But of course whatever replies average birth rates are unacceptable high in many African countries and require local activities to reduce them.
A study report from the “Berlin Institute for Population and Development” called “Africa’s Demographic
Trailblazers” (from 2019) provides some explanations and insights for our discussion topic.
Link to the study: https://www.berlin-institut.org/en/detail/africas-demographic-trailblazers
One particularly interesting aspect of this study are maps of Africa with regard to different indicators (pages 11 to 15).
The study stresses the “positive” developments in the sense that there are some nations/regions in Africa where fertility rates fall quicker than in other ones (although they are still rather high compared with other world regions, even in the “forerunner” countries).
Some quotes from this study regarding why Africans want so many children, about non-effective population policies, etc.:
p. 14:
“Where people want many children
In many places in Africa an abundance of children is regarded not as a burden and a cost factor but rather as a blessing. African men, in particular, are keen to have a large number of children, on average almost twice as many as men in other developing countries. ”
p. 13:
“Social norms and traditions
Most African societies are very traditional, especially in the countryside, where on average more than half of the African population lives. Here the (extended) family and the village community have an important role to play as a social security net – not least because state social security programmes are lacking. Marrying young and having children at as early an age as possible is often a necessary form of social security, particularly for girls from poor families. Their social role is then reduced to motherhood and producing a male heir.
What is more, for all their diversity African societies are almost uniformly very religious, and an abundance of children is often regarded as worth striving for. Even the younger generation are still keen to have a relatively large number of children. On average African women wish to have two children more than women in other developing countries; among African men, the desire is for three children more than men elsewhere. Even women with secondary education on average wish to have one child more than women elsewhere.”
p. 15
“The political will for change
Formally at least, more than 80 percent of African states have a population policy that aims to reduce the number of children per woman and to put a brake on population growth. But in many places these policies are not being properly implemented.
Population growth and family planning programmes have to date rarely been the main focus of political thinking in Africa – other issues have usually been given priority.
At the international level, too, diplomacy has tended for decades to handle the subject with kid gloves. Reservations about interfering in sensitive issues like sexuality and reproduction are simply too strong. In addition, the views of African politicians are often marked by cultural norms according to which a large family is a goal worth striving for. Many of those in power see a large and growing population as an economic and geopolitical advantage, an attitude that used to be widespread almost everywhere in the world.
[…] In many places the idea prevails that a large, young population is in itself a guarantee of economic progress.
[…] In order to change such views of population dynamics, a sober analysis and the recognition of scientifically proven linkages are required. In addition, African politicians and those engaged in international cooperation with these countries need to rethink their strategy.”
The “lowest hanging fruit” is helping (first of all by contraceptives that can be hidden from men: iud, implant, inject) the quarter of a billion poor women who lack contraceptive options: those who do not (currently) want to get pregnant, but cannot use contraception. Unmet need.
The more difficult step is to reduce the “desired” number of children, i.e. to alleviate the social, religious, patriarchal, and economic pressures that force reproduction. And to expand women’s opportunities for education and work, because they often want to get pregnant only because they have no other way to become someone.
The number of children “desired” by women is very deceptive, because someone who cannot study, work, and is not yet a mother (especially a mother of a son) is a nobody in their social environment. The number of children “desired” by those who have not yet had children is especially deceptive, as it immediately and dramatically decreases with the birth of the first child, when they learn the burdens of pregnancy, childbirth, and raising children.
The “desired” number of children is often wishful thinking, dreaming, and has nothing to do with reality: IF they had health, finances, a suitable partner, and housing … If the question is asked in such a way that in the village everyone usually has few children … then people will already say they want fewer children. And even if the question also refers to the distant future: the climate, the soil may deteriorate, drought, war may come …
That’s why PMC’s work is very important and effective, because it provides a virtual social environment, freeing you from local pressure.
If women can decide, the “desired” number of children is lower (see the surveys below, which clearly show the male dominance in this area). If they have other options than reproduction, then even fewer.
Most Recent African Surveys (post-2020) on Desired Number of Children Among Married Men and Women
Below is a summary of the latest available Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) and related analyses from Sub-Saharan Africa (2020–2025). These show that desired family size remains relatively high (typically 4–7 children), but is slowly declining, especially among women with higher education. Men generally desire more children than women. Many 2023–2025 surveys are still being finalized, so some figures are preliminary.
Survey Name Year Country / Region Key Findings Source
Nigeria DHS (NDHS) 2023–2024 Nigeria About 44% of married couples want 6+ children; women’s average ideal = 5.3, men’s 6–7 (higher in rural/low-education groups). Final report expected 2025. DHS Program https://dhsprogram.com/
Ghana DHS (GDHS) 2022 Ghana Married women’s average ideal = 4.2; men ~4.5. 37% want 4–5, 20% want fewer. Education strongly reduces desired number. DHS Program
Angola DHS 2023–2024 Angola Women’s ideal = 5.8, men’s = 6.2; high child mortality leads many to plan “replacement” children. Final report May 2025. DHS Program
Mali DHS 2023–2024 Mali Women’s average ideal = 6.1; ~60% of couples want 5+ children. Strong male preference for large families. Final report Oct 2025. DHS Program
Mozambique DHS 2022–2023 Mozambique Married women average 4.5; 44% want 6+; men average 5.2 (women often want fewer than their husbands). DHS Program
Pooled DHS analysis (23 SSA countries) 2018–2023 (analysis 2025) Sub-Saharan Africa (e.g., Ethiopia, Kenya, Uganda) 167,500 married women: 20% want 0–3, 37% want 4–5, 44% want 6+. Men desire ~0.5–1 more children on average. DHS Statcompiler & recent papers
Pooled analysis (32 SSA countries) – desire for more children ~2020 data (published later) Sub-Saharan Africa (incl. Zambia, Uganda, Nigeria) 232,784 couples: women average 4.6, men 4.9; 68% of couples with 3+ living children still want 5+ total. Various DHS
Pooled analysis (19 SSA countries) – unrealized fertility 2018–2023 (analysis 2025) Sub-Saharan Africa (e.g., Burundi, Kenya, Zimbabwe) Women aged 40–49 often have fewer children than desired (actual 4.8 vs. ideal 5.2); male preferences increase pressure for larger families. Recent journal articles
Main patterns across recent surveys
– Men almost always report a higher ideal number than their wives (difference of 0.5–2.5 children or even more).
– Higher female education and urban residence are the strongest predictors of lower desired fertility.